Climate and economic: an analysis of the dynamics between Mozambique and Malawi

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the transformations in South-South international migration, focusing on Malawian immigrants in Mozambique from 1980 to 2024. It argues that while, in the early 1980s, the Mozambican Civil War (1977-1992) drove the migration of Mozambicans to Malawi—and their subsequent return after the end of the war in 1992—current migration is increasingly driven by economic and environmental factors, characterizing processes referred to as climate migration (Renaud et al., 2007). The study indicates that, between 1980 and 1990, the population growth rates of both Mozambique and Malawi were significantly influenced by migration. During the civil war, Malawi’s population growth rate rose sharply, while Mozambique’s declined drastically. Today, the growing influx of immigrants into Mozambique is driven by the presence of multinational companies and megaprojects exploiting natural resources such as coal, gas, oil, gold, and precious stones (Patrício, 2016; Mosca & Selemane, 2011; Raimundo, 2011). Malawians make up the largest group of immigrants in the country (INE, 2019). At the same time, economic pull factors must be considered alongside increasingly frequent environmental disasters in the region, including cyclones such as Idai (2019) and recurring cycles of floods and droughts, which drive population movements in both countries (Fauvet, 2023; World Bank, 2023). The research was conducted through a bibliographic literature review. Data on the analyzed indicators were based on estimates from the World Population Prospects, the International Organization for Migration, the National Institute for Disaster Management and Reduction, the 2017 Mozambican Census, and the 2018 Malawian Census.